Somaliland President Muse Bihi Abdi and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed [Tiksa Negeri/Reuters]
On January 1, Ethiopian prime minister Abiy Ahmed and President of Somaliland Musa Bihi signed a controversial memorandum of understanding (MOU), which provides 12 miles of sea access to landlocked Ethiopia in exchange for being the first country that recognizes breakaway region of Somaliland and undisclosed share in Ethiopian Airlines, state-owned successful carrier. Although the full content of the MoU is not publicly available by either side and different messages are coming from both sides, increased cooperation in security, development and economic integration between Ethiopia and Somaliland is among what is on the MOU.(1)
Although Somaliland, a former British protectorate, declared itself independent from the rest of Somalia in 1991 after a civil war and the overthrow of then-president Siad Barre’s authoritarian government, it has failed to get international recognition. Nevertheless Somaliland has enjoyed some somewhat working political systems, regular elections, a police force and its own currency which helped them to escape much of the chaos and violence that have hit Somalia.
Somalia rejected the MOU and accused Ethiopia of violating the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Somalia and views the signing of the MOU as a declaration of war. Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud, Somali President, signed a legislation nullifying the MoU. International community including United Nations, EU, United State, Arab League, AU and IGAD have supported Somalia's sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Despite the strong opposition of the MOU from the Somalis including those who live in Somaliland, Somaliland is planning to put forward with the MOU according to news conference held by the ministry of interior Mohamed Kahin and Faisal Ali Warabe, the leader of UCID party, in the presidential palace in Hargeisa yesterday.(2)
This could have a major impact on Somalia’s offensive tragedy against terrorist organizations like Alshabab if Ethiopian troops were to leave Somalia which makes it challenging for the Somali troops to take control. Because of the security concern on the horn of africa, Director of the US Central Intelligence Agency William Burns visited Mogadishu on 17 January, where he met with the Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and director of the National Intelligence Security Agency, Mahad Salad.(3)
John Kirby, director of strategic communications for the National Security Council said that the situation poses a national security concern “What we’re particularly concerned about is this [Memorandum of Understanding] inked recently between Ethiopia and Somaliland threatens to disrupt the fight that Somalis, Africans and regional international partners, including us, are waging against Al-Shabab,” he said. “Al-Shabab remains a viable terrorist threat in the region, without question. We don’t believe that the region can afford any more conflict.”(4)
Al-Shabab quickly takes advantage of these events by using Somali Nationalism to gather support and use it as a recruitment campaign. They called on Somali people to defend and protect their country from MOU that is supported by the “apostates and traitors”.(5) Without dialogue and protecting shared interests between the three major parts, this could give Al-Shabab a major win to expand its mobilization and recruitment bases, which further puts Ethiopia, Somaliland and Somalia at the risk of Al-Shabab’s henious terror attacks.
References:
1. https://mfa.govsomaliland.org/article/somaliland-government-urges-all-concerned-parties-or-respec
2. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9hKJwiwF_rg
3.https://www.hiiraan.com
ews4/2024/Jan/194648/cia_director_william_burns_meets_somali_leaders_in_mogadishu_over_ethiopia_somaliland_port_deal.aspx
4. https://www.voanews.com/a/white-house-troubled-by-deal-between-ethiopia-and-breakaway-somaliland-region-/7443248.html
5. https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2024/01/02/shabaab-says-it-rejects-red-sea-access-deal-between-ethiopia-and-somaliland/#:~:text=Shabaab%2C%20through%20its%20official%20spokesman,Red%20Sea%20port%20in%20Berbera